June 23, 2025 NEW YORK – As Primary Day looms in New York City, a new independent poll suggests a dramatic shift in the Democratic mayoral race, with Queens Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani potentially staging a stunning upset over former Governor Andrew Cuomo. A final major survey, conducted by PIX11 News, Emerson College, and The Hill, indicates Mamdani pulling ahead in the decisive round of a ranked-choice voting simulation.

The poll, which surveyed early and likely Democratic primary voters, shows Mamdani clinching victory in the final round with 52% to Cuomo’s 48%. This outcome marks a significant departure from earlier projections and underscores the unpredictable nature of ranked-choice voting in a crowded field.

The Ranked-Choice Factor: How Mamdani Gains Ground

While Andrew Cuomo initially leads in first-choice ballots, garnering 36% compared to Mamdani’s 34% and New York City Comptroller Brad Lander’s 13%, the dynamic shifts dramatically as lower-ranked choices are redistributed. The simulation reveals that once Lander is eliminated, a significant majority of his "second choice" votes flow to Mamdani, propelling him into the lead.

This surge for Mamdani is largely attributed to a strategic cross-endorsement between him and Lander. Both candidates have actively urged their supporters to rank the other as their second choice, a tactic that appears to be paying dividends in this latest poll.

Capturing the Latest Campaign Developments

Conducted from June 18-20, the survey captures the impact of several late-breaking campaign developments that have shaped the primary race. These include:

• Multiple cross-endorsements among candidates.
• The final Democratic primary debate, a crucial platform for candidates to make their closing arguments.
• The controversial, albeit brief, detention of Brad Lander by ICE outside a federal immigration court.
• A recent controversy surrounding Mamdani's defense of the phrase “globalize the intifada.”
• Senator Bernie Sanders' endorsement of Zohran Mamdani.
• Cuomo's increasing support within the Jewish community.
• Several influential opinion pieces published in The New York Times.

It's important to note that developments over the weekend, such as former President Bill Clinton's endorsement of Andrew Cuomo, would not have influenced the voters surveyed in this particular poll.

A Stark Contrast to Previous Polls

If these results hold true on June 24, it would signify a meteoric rise for Mamdani, who was polling at a mere 1% in Emerson's initial survey back in February. The poll also suggests that the vast majority of New York City Democratic primary voters have made up their minds, with only 4% remaining undecided.

This new data stands in stark contrast to the most recent independent polling from a major organization prior to this survey, conducted by Marist. The Marist poll indicated that approximately 11% of primary voters were undecided and showed Cuomo maintaining a double-digit lead in both the first and final rounds.

A source close to the Cuomo campaign stated that their internal polling aligns more closely with the Marist findings, projecting confidence in their candidate's position. However, with early voting turnout nearly doubling compared to four years ago, particularly in historically liberal strongholds of Manhattan and Brooklyn, the Mamdani campaign is projecting considerable confidence.

"This is an outlier: Every other credible poll in this election — including two released last week — has shown Governor Cuomo with a double digit lead, which is exactly where this election will end tomorrow," a spokesperson for Cuomo told PIX11 News in a statement. "Between now and then we will continue to fight for every vote like he will fight for every New Yorker as Mayor."

As Primary Day dawns, all eyes will be on the final tally to see if this last-minute poll proves to be a harbinger of an electoral surprise.