February 25, 2026 NEW YORK, NY For years, we’ve been told the subways are getting safer. But as the first month of 2026 comes to a close, the data tells a much more complicated—and frankly, jarring—story. While city leaders tout long-term successes, the reality on the platforms this January felt a lot colder than the record-breaking temperatures outside.

The Surge: Felonies on the Rise

Despite the heavy presence of law enforcement, major felonies in the transit system jumped by 6.1% compared to last year. We aren't just talking about petty theft; these 174 reported incidents include the "Big Three" of violent crime: rape, robbery, and felony assault.

Perhaps most disturbing is the sharp rise in targeted violence. Antisemitic hate crimes quadrupled, leaping from two incidents last January to eight this year. This surge in bias-motivated crime, coupled with high-profile tragedies like the fatal shooting at the 170th Street station in the Bronx, has left commuters wondering if the "safest year" headlines of 2025 were a premature victory lap.

The Enforcement Gap: More Crime, Fewer Arrests?

You would think a spike in crime would lead to a crackdown. Instead, the numbers show a puzzling retreat in police activity:

• Arrests: Down 3.1% (falling to 2,785).

• Quality-of-Life Summonses (TAB): Down a staggering 15.6%.

• The Turnstile Reality: Only 8,024 summonses were issued for violations like turnstile jumping and smoking, compared to over 9,500 the previous year.

While "criminal summonses"—which require a court appearance—did tick up by 11%, the drop in immediate enforcement for "quality-of-life" issues is a red flag for many transit advocates who believe small violations often lead to larger ones.

The "Cold" Excuse: Why the NYPD Says the Data is Skewed

The NYPD and the MTA aren't hitting the panic button just yet. Officials argue that seven weeks of data is too small a sample size to declare a "trend." Their primary scapegoat for the uptick? The weather.

According to an NYPD spokesperson, the record-breaking cold this winter has pushed more people—including the city's vulnerable and criminal populations—into the subway system for warmth. Essentially, more people in the tunnels equals more opportunities for conflict.

The Official Stance: "Don't Panic"

The MTA remains defensive, noting that even with this slight bump, January 2026 was still the fifth-lowest start to a year for felony crimes in two decades. Governor Kathy Hochul and Mayor Zohran Mamdani continue to point to the expansion of the SCOUT program and the presence of officers on overnight trains as evidence that the system is under control.

However, riders aren't interested in 20-year averages when they're standing on a lonely platform at midnight. As Danny Pearlstein of the Riders Alliance put it, safety requires "granular attention." Whether it's the cold, a lapse in enforcement, or something more systemic, the "honeymoon phase" of 2025's safety records is officially over.