May 14, 2025
NEW YORK, NY – As the June 24th Democratic primary for New York City Mayor approaches, former Governor Andrew Cuomo continues to hold a significant, double-digit lead over his rivals, according to a new Marist College poll released Tuesday, May 13, 2025.
The survey, conducted in the first week of May (May 1-8), paints a picture of a remarkably stable race, even as Cuomo navigates past controversies and his opponents ramp up their campaigns. With just six weeks until Democratic voters cast their ballots, the path for challengers to overtake the former governor appears increasingly challenging.
Cuomo Ahead in Ranked-Choice Simulation
New York City's ranked-choice voting system, which allows voters to rank up to five candidates, comes into play in the poll's projections. Here's how the numbers break down
- First Round:
- Andrew Cuomo: 44%
- Zohran Mamdani: 22%
- Adrienne Adams (City Council Speaker): 11%
- Brad Lander (City Comptroller): 10%
- Other candidates (Scott Stringer, Zellnor Myrie, Jessica Ramos, Michael Blake, Whitney Tilson): Single digits.
- Fifth Round (Final Simulated):
- Andrew Cuomo: 53% (clearing the 50% threshold to win)
- Zohran Mamdani: 29%
- Brad Lander: 18% (eliminated prior to this round, showing his redistributed strength)
Notably, the ranked-choice system, in this current polling, doesn't seem to provide a clear path to victory for any single opponent against Cuomo. Unlike the 2021 mayoral race where Eric Adams won in the eighth round with Kathryn Garcia steadily climbing, Cuomo doesn't appear to be a prominent second or third choice for many voters supporting other candidates.
Challenges and Campaign Dynamics
Despite resigning in 2021 following a state attorney general's investigation into sexual harassment allegations (which he denies), Cuomo's support among likely Democratic voters has remained robust. His opponents have attempted to highlight these issues, alongside campaign hurdles like missing out on public matching funds and alleged coordination with a super PAC. However, these efforts have yet to significantly dent his lead.
Cuomo has largely kept media interactions personnage, a strategy his polling numbers seem to support. While this Marist poll didn't measure favorability ratings, previous surveys have indicated Cuomo carries higher negative ratings than his primary challengers.
The campaigns of his rivals are actively trying to gain traction. Zohran Mamdani's ads began airing last month, with Brad Lander and Zellnor Myrie launching their first television spots as the Marist poll was being conducted. Scott Stringer's ads are also expected soon.
The Incumbent Factor and Trump's Shadow
The current mayor, Eric Adams, is not seeking the Democratic nomination and plans to run on an independent line in the general election. This follows his federal corruption indictment last September (charges that were dismissed last month with assistance from President Donald Trump's administration).
